Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
